Holmen AB (publ) logo

Holmen AB (publ)

HOLM-B.ST
46
Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · Basic Materials
Price
kr 309.00
+3.20 (+1.05%)
Market Cap
kr 48.00B
Exchange
Stockholm Stock Exchange
Winston Score
46
Winston looking serious
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Winston Score between 40 and 70. The stock passes some quality checks but not all.

Holmen AB is a Swedish forest products company that owns large areas of forest in Sweden and uses that timber to make paper, paperboard, and wood products. Its main products include newsprint paper, cartonboard used in food packaging, and sawn timber sold to construction and furniture companies. Holmen is one of the larger forest owners in Sweden, which gives it direct control over a key raw material.

The company earns revenue by selling these physical goods to manufacturers, publishers, and builders mostly across Europe. Holmen operates several mills and processing facilities in Sweden and has a relatively small international footprint compared to global paper giants. Its ownership of roughly one million hectares of forest is its main competitive advantage, since it reduces dependence on outside timber suppliers. The key risk is that demand for newsprint continues to fall as print media declines, while its packaging and wood segments must grow fast enough to offset that pressure.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
3.6%
Thin — 3.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
11.6%
Modest — 11.6% operating margin
ROCE
1.0%
Weak — 1.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-6.3%
Shrinking sales (-6.3% YoY)
EPS YoY
-2.0%
Earnings shrinking (-2.0% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
157%
Turns 157% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
12.2%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (12.2%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.11
Conservative — low debt load (0.11)
Interest Cover
16.54x
Comfortably covers interest (16.5x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio
18.0x
Fair value — P/E 18.0

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
-0.6
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
3.02%
Moderate income — 3.02% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+50.8%
Dividend growing fast (50.8% YoY)

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