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Howard Hughes Holdings

HHH
37
Real Estate - Diversified · Real Estate
Winston Score
37
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Howard Hughes Holdings builds and manages large planned communities — entire neighborhoods, towns, and city districts designed from scratch. Its main products are residential lots, commercial buildings, and retail spaces sold or leased to homebuilders, businesses, and residents. The company owns and develops master-planned communities in places like Houston, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Honolulu, making it one of the larger operators of this type of real estate in the United States.

The company makes money in two main ways: selling land to homebuilders and collecting rent from offices, shops, and apartments it owns inside its communities. Because it controls large, connected pieces of land, it can capture value as those areas grow over time — that is its core competitive advantage. However, the business is sensitive to rising interest rates and a slowdown in housing demand, both of which reduce land sales and make new development more expensive to finance.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
13.4%
Thin — 13.4% gross margin
Operating Margin
21.5%
Excellent — 21.5% operating margin
ROCE
0.5%
Weak — 0.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-15.7%
Shrinking sales (-15.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
-60.9%
Earnings shrinking (-60.9% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
384%
Turns 384% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
29.4%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (29.4%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.53
Elevated debt (1.53)
Interest Cover
1.47x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.5x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
35.5x
no trend
Pricey — P/E 35.5

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+19.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (35.5 → 16.3)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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