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Hercules Capital

HTGC
60
Asset Management · Financial Services
Price
$16.17
-0.20 (-1.22%)
Market Cap
$3.03B
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
60
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Share count rising — dilution

+68.0% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 116.0M (2021) → 194.8M (2025)

Hercules Capital is a specialty finance company that lends money to startups and fast-growing technology, life sciences, and healthcare companies. Instead of taking ownership stakes like a venture capital firm, Hercules provides loans — giving young companies cash while they grow toward an IPO or acquisition. It is one of the largest venture lenders in the United States, structured as a Business Development Company (BDC).

Hercules makes money by charging interest on the loans it makes, typically at floating rates, which means payments rise when interest rates go up. It operates almost entirely in the United States, focusing on venture-backed companies that have already raised funding from well-known investors. Its main competitive edge is deep relationships with top-tier venture capital firms, which feed it a steady stream of borrowers. The key risk is credit losses — if too many borrowers fail before repaying their loans, earnings and dividends can fall sharply.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

4 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 2 sells on HTGC in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+3.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-20.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (7%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

8.5%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Runway

~5 years

$4.8B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

$4.8B cash & investments at current burn rate

Growth context

Hercules Capital is growing revenue at 4% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
70.7%
Premium pricing power — 70.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
44.3%
Excellent — 44.3% operating margin
ROCE
0.9%
Weak — 0.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+41.2%
Fast-growing sales (41.2% YoY)
EPS YoY
+36.6%
Earnings growing fast (36.6% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
-106%
Weak — only -106% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
-63.9%
Burning cash (-63.9%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.15
Elevated debt (1.15)
Interest Cover
3.55x
Tight — interest eats into profit (3.6x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
8.8x
Attractive valuation — P/E 8.8

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
+0.5
GROWING
Earnings roughly flat

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
12.22%
Healthy income — 12.22% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth
-4.4%
Dividend cut (-4.4% YoY) — warning sign

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