Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KUMBF) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

Kumba Iron Ore is a South African mining company that digs iron ore out of the ground and sells it to steel mills around the world. Iron ore is the main raw material used to make steel, which goes into buildings, cars, ships, and countless other products. Kumba is one of the largest iron ore producers in Africa and is majority-owned by Anglo American, one of the world's biggest mining groups.

Kumba makes money by selling iron ore, mostly as a physical commodity priced on global markets. Its mines are located in South Africa's Northern Cape province, and most of its ore is exported to customers in Asia and Europe through the Saldanha Bay port. The company's high-grade ore gives it a quality advantage over lower-grade competitors, but its profits are heavily tied to iron ore prices, which can swing sharply based on steel demand — particularly in China, its largest end market.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-10.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-42.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (3%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

82.6%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$13.3B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Kumba Iron Ore Limited's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

−0.1% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 321.8M (2021) → 321.6M (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin

57.1%

Premium pricing power — 57.1% gross margin

Operating Margin

26.3%

Excellent — 26.3% operating margin

ROCE

15.3%

Strong — 15.3% return on capital

ROIC between 15% and 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns 15 to 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+0.9%

Nearly flat sales (+0.9% YoY)

EPS YoY

-21.6%

Earnings shrinking (-21.6% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

1/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

189%

Turns 189% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

15.6%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (15.6%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.00

Conservative — low debt load (0.00)

Interest Cover

26.13x

Comfortably covers interest (26.1x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

0.6x

Attractive valuation — P/E 0.6

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward

-0.2

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

12.35%

Healthy income — 12.35% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth

-20.9%

Dividend cut (-20.9% YoY) — warning sign

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