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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

LPX
39
Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · Basic Materials
Price
$73.98
-2.90 (-3.77%)
Market Cap
$5.17B
Winston Score
39
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

28.6% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 98.0M (2021) → 70.0M (2025)

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation makes building materials used to construct and repair homes. Its main products include oriented strand board (OSB), which is a type of engineered wood panel used in walls, floors, and roofs, as well as siding and trim products sold under the LP SmartSide brand. The company sells primarily to homebuilders, contractors, and building supply distributors across North America.

Louisiana-Pacific earns revenue by manufacturing and selling these wood-based building products, with pricing tied closely to commodity lumber and OSB market rates. The company operates mills mainly in the United States and Canada, with some presence in South America, and generates roughly $3 billion in annual revenue. LP SmartSide siding is a growing, higher-margin segment that provides some insulation from volatile OSB commodity prices, but the company's overall performance remains heavily dependent on new home construction activity — meaning a slowdown in housing starts is the primary risk to its business.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

8 trades / 12mo

5 Congressional buys and 3 sells on LPX in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
20.0%
Thin — 20.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
6.4%
Modest — 6.4% operating margin
ROCE
1.8%
Weak — 1.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-13.0%
Shrinking sales (-13.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
-79.3%
Earnings shrinking (-79.3% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
344%
Turns 344% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
-0.2%
Burning cash (-0.2%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.21
Conservative — low debt load (0.21)
Interest Cover
15.67x
Comfortably covers interest (15.7x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
62.7x
Expensive — P/E 62.7

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+21.1
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (62.7 → 41.6)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.46%
Small dividend — 1.46% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+7.4%
Dividend growing modestly (7.4% YoY)

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