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Luckin Coffee logo

Luckin Coffee

LKNCY
64
Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$33.63
-1.21 (-3.47%)
Market Cap
$10.76B
Exchange
Other OTC
Winston Score
64
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.
Data as of Aug 9, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

Share count rising — dilution

+20.2% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 33.4M (2021) → 40.1M (2025)

Luckin Coffee is a Chinese coffee chain that sells affordable lattes, milk teas, and other drinks through thousands of small pickup-focused stores across China. Its customers are mostly young urban workers who order ahead on a smartphone app and grab their drinks quickly without waiting in a traditional café line. Luckin is one of the largest coffee chains in China by store count, having surpassed Starbucks China in number of locations.

The company makes money by selling drinks directly to customers, with a heavy reliance on its app for ordering and digital promotions to drive repeat purchases. Luckin operates almost entirely within China, and its low-cost, tech-driven model gives it a cost advantage over foreign competitors. As of its most recent fiscal data, it generates solid gross margins above 50%, but thin operating margins leave little room for error. The key growth driver is expanding into lower-tier Chinese cities, while intense domestic competition and a history of accounting fraud remain meaningful risks for investors.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+29.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Strong revenue growth

EPS Growth

+19.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

Declining (-100% vs prior year)

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

R&D spend declining — could signal cost-cutting or efficiency

Insider Activity

25.8%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$11.6B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Strong grower

Luckin Coffee is growing revenue at 29% year-over-year. The Winston Score penalises unprofitable companies, but revenue at this pace tells a different story — this is a company still in "build mode."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
58.5%
Premium pricing power — 58.5% gross margin
Operating Margin
13.5%
Healthy — 13.5% operating margin
ROCE
9.2%
Below par — 9.2% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+36.4%
Fast-growing sales (+36.4% YoY)
EPS YoY
-4.0%
Earnings shrinking (-4.0% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency
5/8 quarters
Mixed — about half the quarters showed growth

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
159%
Turns 159% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
9.7%
Modest free cash flow (9.7%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.28
Conservative — low debt load (0.28)
Interest Cover
2815.59x
Comfortably covers interest (2815.6x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
0.4x
Attractive valuation — P/E 0.4

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-2.0
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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