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Lynas Rare Earths Limited

LYSCF
42
Industrial Materials · Basic Materials
Price
$11.04
-0.10 (-0.93%)
Market Cap
$11.11B
Exchange
Other OTC
Winston Score
42
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+7.1% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 873.2M (2021) → 935.1M (2025)

Lynas Rare Earths is an Australian mining and processing company that digs up and refines rare earth elements — special metals used in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, smartphones, and military equipment. Its main products are neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr), which are key ingredients in powerful permanent magnets. Lynas is the largest rare earth producer outside of China, which makes it strategically important to countries trying to reduce their dependence on Chinese supply chains.

The company makes money by selling processed rare earth materials to manufacturers, mainly in Japan, Europe, and increasingly the United States. Lynas operates its mine in Western Australia and a processing facility in Malaysia, and is building a new processing plant in Texas with partial U.S. government support. Its main competitive advantage is being one of the very few non-Chinese suppliers of refined rare earths at scale. The biggest risk is that China dominates this industry and could undercut prices, squeezing Lynas's already thin profit margins.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
26.7%
Modest — 26.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
1.3%
Thin — 1.3% operating margin
ROCE
0.2%
Weak — 0.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-24.1%
Shrinking sales (-24.1% YoY)
EPS YoY
-83.0%
Earnings shrinking (-83.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
167%
Turns 167% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
-36.8%
Burning cash (-36.8%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.06
Conservative — low debt load (0.06)
Interest Cover
20.95x
Comfortably covers interest (20.9x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
79.8x
Expensive — P/E 79.8

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+68.6
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (79.8 → 11.2)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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