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Lynas Rare Earths Limited

LYSDY
58
Industrial Materials · Basic Materials
Price
$10.87
-0.27 (-2.42%)
Market Cap
$10.94B
Exchange
Other OTC
Winston Score
58
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Share count rising — dilution

+7.1% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 873.2M (2021) → 935.1M (2025)

Lynas Rare Earths is an Australian mining and processing company that digs up and refines rare earth elements — special metals used in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, smartphones, and military equipment. Its main products are neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr), which are key ingredients in powerful permanent magnets. Lynas operates one of the world's largest rare earth mines in Mount Weld, Australia, and runs a major processing facility in Malaysia.

The company sells refined rare earth materials directly to manufacturers, primarily in Japan, China, and other parts of Asia, generating revenue through commodity sales rather than subscriptions or licenses. With annual revenues around $500–600 million, Lynas holds a rare position as the only significant producer of separated rare earths outside of China, giving it strategic importance to governments and companies trying to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. Its biggest risk is that rare earth prices are volatile and heavily influenced by Chinese production decisions, which can quickly squeeze profit margins.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+32.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

-95.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (3%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

11.3%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Runway

~7 months

$264M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Revenue accelerating

Lynas Rare Earths Limited grew revenue 32% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
28.2%
Modest — 28.2% gross margin
Operating Margin
19.5%
Healthy — 19.5% operating margin
ROCE
2.2%
Weak — 2.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+46.7%
Fast-growing sales (46.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
+52.4%
Earnings growing fast (52.4% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
175%
Turns 175% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
-3.2%
Burning cash (-3.2%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.06
Conservative — low debt load (0.06)
Interest Cover
17.79x
Comfortably covers interest (17.8x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
131.6x
Expensive — P/E 131.6

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+120.7
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (131.6 → 10.9)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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