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Marathon Petroleum Corporation

MPC
35
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy
Price
$312.60
+6.75 (+2.21%)
Market Cap
$91.26B
Winston Score
35
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

52.2% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 638.0M (2021) → 305.0M (2025)

Marathon Petroleum Corporation turns crude oil into everyday products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. It sells these fuels to gas stations, trucking companies, airlines, and other businesses across the United States. Marathon is one of the largest oil refiners in the country and also owns the Speedway-branded fuel network through its MPLX pipeline and logistics business.

Marathon makes money by buying crude oil, refining it, and selling the finished products at a higher price — the difference is called the refining margin. It operates primarily in the United States, with refineries spread across the Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast, giving it broad geographic reach. The company's large refining capacity and extensive pipeline network through its MPLX partnership create real scale advantages over smaller competitors. The main risk is that refining margins are cyclical and can shrink quickly when crude oil prices rise faster than fuel prices, which directly squeezes profits.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

6 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 4 sells on MPC in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
8.9%
Thin — 8.9% gross margin
Operating Margin
5.7%
Thin — 5.7% operating margin
ROCE
3.7%
Weak — 3.7% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-4.4%
Shrinking sales (-4.4% YoY)
EPS YoY
+34.1%
Earnings growing fast (34.1% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
204%
Turns 204% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
3.6%
Thin free cash flow (3.6%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.89
Elevated debt (1.89)
Interest Cover
4.10x
Adequate interest coverage (4.1x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
23.4x
Growth-priced — P/E 23.4

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+10.8
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (23.4 → 12.6)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.50%
Small dividend — 1.50% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+10.0%
Dividend growing modestly (10.0% YoY)

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