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Meritage Homes Corporation

MTH
32
Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$74.17
-3.27 (-4.22%)
Market Cap
$4.95B
Winston Score
32
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

7.4% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 76.5M (2021) → 70.8M (2025)

Meritage Homes builds and sells new single-family homes across the United States. The company targets first-time buyers and first move-up buyers, offering homes in planned communities mostly in the Sun Belt states like Texas, Florida, Arizona, and the Carolinas. It is one of the ten largest homebuilders in the country by volume.

Meritage makes money by selling completed homes, typically priced in the entry-level to mid-range segment. The company has leaned heavily into energy-efficient, move-in-ready homes, which helps attract budget-conscious buyers and reduces the time homes sit unsold. Its focus on the Sun Belt gives it exposure to some of the fastest-growing population centers in the country, but the business is sensitive to mortgage interest rates — when rates rise, fewer people can afford to buy, which directly pressures sales volume and pricing power.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
17.5%
Thin — 17.5% gross margin
Operating Margin
5.8%
Thin — 5.8% operating margin
ROCE
0.9%
Weak — 0.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-10.6%
Shrinking sales (-10.6% YoY)
EPS YoY
-45.2%
Earnings shrinking (-45.2% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
68%
Modest — 68% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
4.2%
Thin free cash flow (4.2%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.35
Conservative — low debt load (0.35)
Interest Cover
773.39x
Comfortably covers interest (773.4x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
13.5x
Attractive valuation — P/E 13.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
-2.9
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
2.22%
Moderate income — 2.22% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
-22.9%
Dividend cut (-22.9% YoY) — warning sign

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