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Molina Healthcare

MOH
31
Medical - Healthcare Plans · Healthcare
Price
$225.37
+0.55 (+0.24%)
Market Cap
$11.74B
Winston Score
31
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

13.3% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 58.6M (2021) → 50.8M (2025)

Molina Healthcare is a health insurance company that focuses almost entirely on government-sponsored programs. It manages health plans for low-income and vulnerable people through Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act marketplace. The company operates in about 20 U.S. states and serves roughly 5 million members.

Molina makes money by receiving fixed monthly payments from state and federal governments for each member it covers, then paying for that member's medical care. The goal is to collect more in premiums than it spends on healthcare — a thin margin business, as the low gross margin reflects. Its competitive position comes from deep expertise in navigating complex government contracting and compliance requirements, which creates a barrier for new entrants. The main risk is that rising medical costs, particularly from higher-than-expected patient utilization, can quickly squeeze already narrow margins, while growth depends on winning new state Medicaid contracts and expanding into additional states.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

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6 Congressional buys and 8 sells on MOH in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-3.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-95.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (18%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

1.4%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$5.3B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Molina Healthcare's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
14.1%
Thin — 14.1% gross margin
Operating Margin
1.6%
Thin — 1.6% operating margin
ROCE
2.2%
Weak — 2.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+7.7%
Steady sales growth (7.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
-83.6%
Earnings shrinking (-83.6% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
190%
Turns 190% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
0.6%
Thin free cash flow (0.6%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.97
Moderate — manageable debt (0.97)
Interest Cover
2.58x
Tight — interest eats into profit (2.6x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
66.5x
Expensive — P/E 66.5

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+49.2
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (66.5 → 17.3)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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