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Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund

MSDL
50
Financial - Conglomerates · Financial Services
Price
$15.46
-0.29 (-1.84%)
Market Cap
$1.31B
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
50
Winston is curious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

1.1% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 88.3M (2021) → 87.3M (2025)

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is a specialty finance company that lends money directly to mid-sized private businesses. Instead of going through a bank, these companies borrow directly from MSDL, which provides loans — mostly floating-rate, senior secured loans — to support things like business growth, acquisitions, or ownership changes. It operates as a Business Development Company (BDC), a special type of investment fund regulated by the U.S. government.

MSDL makes money by collecting interest payments on the loans it makes, passing most of that income to shareholders as dividends. It operates primarily in the United States, focusing on established middle-market companies with stable cash flows. Its main competitive advantage is the backing of Morgan Stanley's brand, deal flow, and credit expertise, which helps it source and evaluate loans. The main risk is rising loan defaults — if borrowers struggle to repay, especially during an economic downturn, MSDL's income and asset values can fall quickly.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
79.6%
Premium pricing power — 79.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
34.9%
Excellent — 34.9% operating margin
ROCE
0.7%
Weak — 0.7% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-6.7%
Shrinking sales (-6.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
-53.8%
Earnings shrinking (-53.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
250%
Turns 250% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
73.4%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (73.4%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.21
Elevated debt (1.21)
Interest Cover
1.15x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.2x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
15.3x
Fair value — P/E 15.3

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+6.8
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (15.3 → 8.5)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
12.20%
Healthy income — 12.20% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth
+18.7%
Dividend growing fast (18.7% YoY)

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