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MSC Industrial Direct Co.

MSM
47
Industrial - Distribution · Industrials
Winston Score
47
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

MSC Industrial Direct sells tools, parts, and supplies that factories and manufacturers need to keep their machines running. Think drill bits, cutting tools, safety gear, and thousands of other items used on the shop floor every day. The company serves manufacturers across the United States, acting as a middleman between product makers and the industrial businesses that need those products fast.

MSC makes money by selling these items at a markup, either through its website, catalogs, or direct sales representatives. It operates mainly in the United States and carries over one million products, which makes it hard for customers to switch to a smaller supplier. The company's main competitive edge is its ability to deliver quickly and reliably, which keeps factories from running out of critical supplies. The biggest risk MSC faces is that its sales are closely tied to U.S. manufacturing activity, so an economic slowdown or drop in factory output tends to hurt its revenue fairly quickly.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
41.1%
Healthy — 41.1% gross margin
Operating Margin
7.3%
Modest — 7.3% operating margin
ROCE
3.5%
Weak — 3.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-1.9%
Shrinking sales (-1.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
-18.8%
Earnings shrinking (-18.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
168%
Turns 168% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
6.2%
Modest free cash flow (6.2%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.40
Conservative — low debt load (0.40)
Interest Cover
12.99x
Comfortably covers interest (13.0x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
29.9x
no trend
Growth-priced — P/E 29.9

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+4.6
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (29.9 → 25.2)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
2.76%
no trend
Moderate income — 2.76% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+2.4%
no trend
Dividend flat

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