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Murphy USA

MUSA
36
Specialty Retail · Consumer Cyclical
Winston Score
36
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Murphy USA runs a chain of gas stations and convenience stores across the United States. Most of its locations sit in the parking lots of Walmart stores, which brings in steady foot traffic from everyday shoppers. The company sells fuel, snacks, drinks, tobacco, and other convenience items to regular consumers.

Murphy USA makes money by selling gasoline and in-store merchandise at its roughly 1,700 locations, primarily in the South and Midwest. Fuel margins are thin, which explains the low gross margin, but the company earns strong returns on capital by keeping costs low and running a lean operation. Its long-standing Walmart partnership gives it a reliable location advantage that is difficult for competitors to replicate. The main risk is that fuel volumes could decline over time as electric vehicles become more common, which would pressure the core revenue stream that drives customer visits to its stores.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
5.4%
Thin — 5.4% gross margin
Operating Margin
4.3%
Thin — 4.3% operating margin
ROCE
7.3%
Weak — 7.3% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-1.2%
Shrinking sales (-1.2% YoY)
EPS YoY
+21.6%
Earnings growing fast (21.6% YoY)

Healthy double-digit earnings growth — what compounders look like.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
182%
Turns 182% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
2.8%
Thin free cash flow (2.8%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
3.27
Heavy debt load (3.27)
Interest Cover
7.47x
Adequate interest coverage (7.5x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
20.3x
no trend
Growth-priced — P/E 20.3

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
N/A
not available
Data not available

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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