National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

National Fuel Gas Company is a natural gas business that does almost everything related to gas — it pulls gas out of the ground, moves it through pipelines, and delivers it to homes and businesses. The company operates across the full supply chain, from production in the Appalachian region to distribution in western New York and Pennsylvania. It owns the Seneca Resources subsidiary for drilling and a regulated utility that serves roughly 750,000 customers.

National Fuel makes money in several ways: selling the gas it produces, charging fees to move gas through its pipelines, and collecting regulated utility rates from residential and commercial customers. This mix of businesses spans New York, Pennsylvania, and parts of Canada, and the regulated utility segment provides steady, predictable cash flow that cushions the company from volatile commodity prices. The main risk is that natural gas prices can fall sharply, hurting the production segment's earnings even when the utility side stays stable.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

4 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 3 sells on NFG in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+17.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

+9.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

1.5%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$27M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

National Fuel Gas Company is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 18%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

−0.5% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 91.7M (2021) → 91.2M (2025)

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

43.4%

Healthy — 43.4% gross margin

Operating Margin

40.4%

Excellent — 40.4% operating margin

ROCE

5.6%

Weak — 5.6% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+24.4%

Fast-growing sales (24.4% YoY)

EPS YoY

+468.8%

Earnings growing fast (468.8% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency

8/8 quarters

Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

175%

Turns 175% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

14.3%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (14.3%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.63

Moderate — manageable debt (0.63)

Interest Cover

7.08x

Adequate interest coverage (7.1x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

10.3x

Attractive valuation — P/E 10.3

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

-0.3

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

2.73%

Moderate income — 2.73% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

+3.8%

Dividend growing modestly (3.8% YoY)

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