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Nelnet

NNI
61
Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services
Price
$134.28
-1.03 (-0.76%)
Market Cap
$4.83B
Winston Score
61
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Share count falling — buybacks

4.3% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 37.9M (2021) → 36.3M (2025)

Nelnet is a financial services company based in Lincoln, Nebraska, that mainly helps people pay for college. It manages student loans, processes tuition payments for schools, and provides technology services to universities and the federal government. Nelnet is one of the largest student loan servicers in the United States, handling hundreds of billions of dollars in federal student loan accounts on behalf of the U.S. Department of Education.

The company earns money in several ways: collecting fees to service student loans, charging schools and families for payment processing software, and generating interest income from loans it holds on its balance sheet. Nelnet operates almost entirely within the United States and benefits from long-term government contracts that are difficult for competitors to displace quickly. The biggest risk it faces is that the federal student loan servicing market is shrinking as older loan portfolios wind down, so Nelnet must grow its education technology and payment businesses fast enough to replace that declining revenue.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+12.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-12.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (7%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

36.5%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$119M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

→ Burn rate stable

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

Nelnet is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 13%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
86.6%
Premium pricing power — 86.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
39.4%
Excellent — 39.4% operating margin
ROCE
1.8%
Weak — 1.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+19.4%
Fast-growing sales (19.4% YoY)
EPS YoY
+116.6%
Earnings growing fast (116.6% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
97%
Turns 97% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
17.3%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (17.3%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
2.06
Heavy debt load (2.06)
Interest Cover
1.61x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.6x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
11.7x
Attractive valuation — P/E 11.7

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
-3.8
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
0.96%
Small dividend — 0.96% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+15.2%
Dividend growing fast (15.2% YoY)

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