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Northern Trust Corporation

NTRS
46
Banks - Diversified · Financial Services
Price
$184.68
-3.84 (-2.04%)
Market Cap
$34.17B
Winston Score
46
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

9.7% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 208.9M (2021) → 188.6M (2025)

Northern Trust is a financial services company that helps wealthy individuals, families, and large institutions manage their money. Its two main businesses are wealth management — advising rich clients on investing, taxes, and estate planning — and asset servicing, which means handling back-office tasks like record-keeping and custody for pension funds, endowments, and other big investors. It is one of the oldest and largest custody banks in the United States.

Northern Trust earns money through fees charged for managing assets, holding assets in custody, and providing investment advice, rather than relying heavily on traditional lending. It operates mainly in the U.S. but also has a meaningful presence in Europe and Asia-Pacific, serving clients globally. The company's long client relationships and trusted brand among ultra-high-net-worth individuals give it a sticky customer base, but rising competition from larger universal banks and pressure on fee rates remain ongoing risks to profit growth.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

7 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 5 sells on NTRS in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
58.3%
Premium pricing power — 58.3% gross margin
Operating Margin
18.5%
Healthy — 18.5% operating margin
ROCE
2.4%
Weak — 2.4% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-7.9%
Shrinking sales (-7.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
-10.8%
Earnings shrinking (-10.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
132%
Turns 132% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
12.6%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (12.6%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.26
Elevated debt (1.26)
Interest Cover
0.40x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.4x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
19.2x
Fair value — P/E 19.2

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+4.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (19.2 → 15.0)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.76%
Small dividend — 1.76% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+6.7%
Dividend growing modestly (6.7% YoY)

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