NRG Energy

NRG

Independent Power Producers · Utilities

Price

$129.11

-3.64 (-2.74%)

Market Cap

$27.24B

Winston Score

Winston is worried

Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

−18.8% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 245.0M (2021) → 199.0M (2025)

NRG Energy is one of the largest independent power companies in the United States. It generates and sells electricity to homes, businesses, and industrial customers, and also sells natural gas and energy-related services. NRG owns and operates power plants that run on natural gas, coal, oil, and renewables, and it sells electricity directly to consumers through retail brands like Vivint Smart Home and NRG's own retail energy business.

NRG makes money by generating electricity and selling it at wholesale prices, and by selling power and gas directly to retail customers under fixed or variable-rate contracts. It operates mainly across the U.S. and Texas, where it has a strong presence in the deregulated ERCOT market. The company's retail customer base provides more stable, recurring revenue compared to pure wholesale generators. The main risk NRG faces is exposure to volatile commodity prices — when natural gas prices spike, generation costs rise and margins can shrink quickly.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

4 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 2 sells on NRG in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+20.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-85.9% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.5%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Runway

~1 months

$235M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Cash watch

NRG Energy has less than a year of cash at its current burn rate. Growth investors should watch for potential share dilution from future fundraising — that directly reduces your ownership.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

Each metric is explained in plain language so you know exactly what you're looking at. Start your free trial now.

Quality

Gross Margin

8.3%

Thin — 8.3% gross margin

Operating Margin

2.5%

Thin — 2.5% operating margin

ROCE

0.9%

Weak — 0.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+10.7%

Steady sales growth (10.7% YoY)

EPS YoY

-86.7%

Earnings shrinking (-86.7% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

372%

Turns 372% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

-1.1%

Burning cash (-1.1%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

4.76

Heavy debt load (4.76)

Interest Cover

3.00x

Tight — interest eats into profit (3.0x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

150.1x

Expensive — P/E 150.1

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward

+139.8

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (150.1 → 10.3)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

1.35%

Small dividend — 1.35% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth

+8.0%

Dividend growing modestly (8.0% YoY)

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