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Orchid Island Capital

ORC
57
REIT - Mortgage · Real Estate
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
57
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Orchid Island Capital is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in mortgage-backed securities, which are bundles of home loans packaged into tradeable assets. The company does not make loans directly to homebuyers. Instead, it buys securities backed by residential mortgages, primarily those guaranteed by U.S. government agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Orchid Island makes money by borrowing at short-term interest rates and using that money to buy mortgage-backed securities that pay higher long-term rates, pocketing the difference — a strategy called a "spread." The company operates entirely in the United States and is required by law to pay out at least 90% of its taxable income as dividends to shareholders. Its biggest risk is interest rate changes: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term rates, the spread shrinks and profits fall, which is exactly what happened during the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike cycle in recent years.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+639.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

-161.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

0.3%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$12.3B cash & investments

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue accelerating

Orchid Island Capital grew revenue 640% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
97.2%
Premium pricing power — 97.2% gross margin
Operating Margin
51.2%
Excellent — 51.2% operating margin
ROCE
0.6%
Weak — 0.6% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+548.9%
Fast-growing sales (548.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
+85.9%
Earnings growing fast (85.9% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
117%
Turns 117% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
42.3%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (42.3%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
8.06
Heavy debt load (8.06)
Interest Cover
0.33x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.3x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
9.1x
no trend
Attractive valuation — P/E 9.1

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
+3.2
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (9.1 → 5.9)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
19.93%
no trend
Healthy income — 19.93% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth
-12.5%
no trend
Dividend cut (-12.5% YoY) — warning sign

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