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Origin Energy Limited

OGFGF
44
Oil & Gas Integrated · Energy
Price
$7.28
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Market Cap
$12.54B
Exchange
Other OTC
Winston Score
44
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

2.1% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 1.76B (2021) → 1.72B (2025)

Origin Energy is a large Australian energy company that produces and sells electricity and natural gas to homes and businesses across Australia. It operates power plants — including coal, gas, and renewable sources — and is one of Australia's biggest electricity retailers, serving millions of customers. Origin also owns a major stake in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG), a project that exports liquefied natural gas to customers in Asia.

Origin makes money by selling energy directly to consumers and businesses, and by earning revenue from its share of LNG exports through APLNG. The company operates almost entirely in Australia, making it sensitive to Australian energy policy, gas prices, and electricity market rules. Its large retail customer base gives it some stability, but thin margins — as seen in its low gross and operating margins — mean profitability is vulnerable to swings in wholesale energy prices and the ongoing shift toward cheaper renewable energy sources, which is both a risk and a long-term transition challenge for the business.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+3.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+17.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

1.2%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$8.4B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

→ Burn rate stable

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Origin Energy Limited is growing revenue at 3% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
8.7%
Thin — 8.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
4.0%
Thin — 4.0% operating margin
ROCE
2.4%
Weak — 2.4% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+3.0%
Slow sales growth (3.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
+215.6%
Earnings growing fast (215.6% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
120%
Turns 120% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
2.3%
Thin free cash flow (2.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.44
Conservative — low debt load (0.44)
Interest Cover
8.74x
Comfortably covers interest (8.7x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
5.1x
Attractive valuation — P/E 5.1

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-6.2
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
5.70%
Healthy income — 5.70% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth
+14.6%
Dividend growing fast (14.6% YoY)

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