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Oshkosh

OSK
34
Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$143.66
-3.06 (-2.09%)
Market Cap
$8.96B
Winston Score
34
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+440.1% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 69.2M (2021) → 373.8M (2025)

Oshkosh Corporation makes heavy-duty trucks and equipment for demanding jobs that regular vehicles cannot handle. Its main products include military tactical vehicles, airport fire trucks, concrete mixers, refuse trucks, and aerial work platforms sold under brands like JLG and McNeilus. The company's customers include the U.S. Department of Defense, municipalities, construction companies, and waste management firms.

Oshkosh earns revenue by selling this specialized equipment outright, along with parts, service, and financing. It operates primarily in North America but sells globally, generating roughly $9 billion in annual revenue. Its competitive moat comes from long-term government contracts, specialized engineering expertise, and strong brand recognition in niche equipment categories that have few direct competitors. The biggest near-term growth driver is a large U.S. Army contract to replace aging military vehicles, though defense budget cuts or delays in government spending could meaningfully slow that opportunity.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

3 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 2 sells on OSK in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
12.8%
Thin — 12.8% gross margin
Operating Margin
3.5%
Thin — 3.5% operating margin
ROCE
1.5%
Weak — 1.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-0.7%
Shrinking sales (-0.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
-3.8%
Earnings shrinking (-3.8% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
176%
Turns 176% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
8.1%
Modest free cash flow (8.1%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.26
Conservative — low debt load (0.26)
Interest Cover
7.03x
Adequate interest coverage (7.0x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
15.9x
Fair value — P/E 15.9

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+2.8
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.51%
Small dividend — 1.51% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+11.3%
Dividend growing fast (11.3% YoY)

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