Packaging Corporation of America

PKG

Packaging & Containers · Consumer Cyclical

Price

$233.07

-0.97 (-0.41%)

Market Cap

$20.77B

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

−5.2% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 94.5M (2021) → 89.6M (2025)

Packaging Corporation of America makes cardboard boxes and paper packaging. Its main products are corrugated containers — the brown shipping boxes used to move goods like food, beverages, and online orders. It is one of the largest producers of containerboard and corrugated packaging in the United States.

The company makes money by selling boxes and packaging materials to manufacturers, retailers, and distributors across many industries. It operates almost entirely in the United States, with around 100 manufacturing and converting facilities. Its competitive edge comes from owning its own paper mills, which gives it more control over costs than competitors who must buy raw materials from outside. The main risk is that demand for corrugated packaging is tied closely to the broader economy — when businesses ship less product, PCA sells fewer boxes.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

15 trades / 12mo

10 Congressional buys and 5 sells on PKG in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+10.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-15.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

2.4%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$397M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

Packaging Corporation of America is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 11%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

Each metric is explained in plain language so you know exactly what you're looking at. Start your free trial now.

Quality

Gross Margin

19.1%

Thin — 19.1% gross margin

Operating Margin

11.5%

Modest — 11.5% operating margin

ROCE

3.1%

Weak — 3.1% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+7.9%

Steady sales growth (7.9% YoY)

EPS YoY

-13.9%

Earnings shrinking (-13.9% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

209%

Turns 209% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

7.6%

Modest free cash flow (7.6%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.89

Moderate — manageable debt (0.89)

Interest Cover

12.28x

Comfortably covers interest (12.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

28.3x

Growth-priced — P/E 28.3

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward

+8.7

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (28.3 → 19.6)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

2.17%

Moderate income — 2.17% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

+5.0%

Dividend growing modestly (5.0% YoY)

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