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Penske Automotive Group

PAG
39
Auto - Dealerships · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$202.66
-2.08 (-1.02%)
Market Cap
$13.32B
Winston Score
39
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

17.0% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 79.7M (2021) → 66.2M (2025)

Penske Automotive Group is one of the largest car dealership companies in the United States. It sells new and used cars, trucks, and motorcycles through hundreds of dealerships across the U.S., U.K., and several other countries. The company represents dozens of brands, including premium names like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi, and it also owns a large stake in Penske Transportation Solutions, a commercial truck leasing business.

Penske makes money by selling vehicles, arranging financing and insurance for buyers, and servicing cars in its repair shops. The finance and insurance products, along with the service departments, tend to carry higher margins than vehicle sales alone, which helps offset the thin profits on new car sales. The company's heavy exposure to premium and luxury brands gives it some pricing stability, but its results are sensitive to interest rates — when borrowing costs rise, fewer consumers can afford new vehicles, which is a key risk to watch.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+3.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-2.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

73.2%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$84M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Penske Automotive Group is growing revenue at 3% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
16.5%
Thin — 16.5% gross margin
Operating Margin
3.7%
Thin — 3.7% operating margin
ROCE
2.3%
Weak — 2.3% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+4.8%
Slow sales growth (4.8% YoY)
EPS YoY
-5.6%
Earnings shrinking (-5.6% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
84%
Modest — 84% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
1.4%
Thin free cash flow (1.4%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.19
Elevated debt (1.19)
Interest Cover
5.65x
Adequate interest coverage (5.6x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
15.1x
Fair value — P/E 15.1

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+2.0
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
3.15%
Moderate income — 3.15% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+16.5%
Dividend growing fast (16.5% YoY)

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