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The Progressive Corporation

PGR
62
Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services
Price
$207.95
+2.15 (+1.04%)
Market Cap
$120.90B
Winston Score
62
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Progressive is one of the largest car insurance companies in the United States. It sells auto insurance directly to drivers — both personal and commercial — and also offers home, renters, and motorcycle insurance. It is the third-largest personal auto insurer in the country and is known for its direct-to-consumer model through its website, app, and the well-known Flo advertising campaign.

Progressive makes money by collecting insurance premiums from customers and investing those funds while paying out claims. It operates almost entirely in the United States and serves millions of individual drivers as well as businesses with vehicle fleets. Its main competitive advantage is its data-driven approach to pricing risk, which helps it price policies more accurately than many rivals. The key growth driver is continued expansion in homeowners insurance bundled with auto, but the main ongoing risk is that a spike in accident claims or repair costs can quickly squeeze profit margins.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

44 trades / 12mo

23 Congressional buys and 21 sells on PGR in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+8.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+9.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (7%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.0%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$162M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

The Progressive Corporation is growing revenue at 9% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

+0.2% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 587.1M (2021) → 588.2M (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
37.7%
Modest — 37.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
16.1%
Healthy — 16.1% operating margin
ROCE
8.8%
Below par — 8.8% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+13.9%
Fast-growing sales (13.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
+32.6%
Earnings growing fast (32.6% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
8/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
145%
Turns 145% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
18.4%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (18.4%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.26
Conservative — low debt load (0.26)
Interest Cover
52.35x
Comfortably covers interest (52.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
10.5x
Attractive valuation — P/E 10.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
-1.4
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
6.68%
Healthy income — 6.68% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth
+183.7%
Dividend growing fast (183.7% YoY)

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