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Phillips 66

PSX
36
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy
Winston Score
36
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Phillips 66 turns crude oil into products people use every day — gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and chemicals. It sells these products to gas stations, airlines, trucking companies, and industrial customers across the United States and internationally. The company also owns the 76 and Conoco fuel brands at the retail level, and operates one of the largest refining networks in the United States.

Phillips 66 makes money by buying crude oil, refining it, and selling the finished products at a markup — a business called "crack spread" economics, where profits depend on the gap between crude costs and fuel prices. It operates refineries, pipelines, chemical plants, and fuel terminals mainly in the U.S., with some international exposure through its chemicals joint venture with Chevron called CPChem. The company's scale and integrated midstream assets give it some cost advantages, but its biggest risk is that refining margins are highly cyclical and can compress sharply when crude oil prices rise faster than fuel prices.

Winston Score History

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
10.6%
Thin — 10.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
8.4%
Modest — 8.4% operating margin
ROCE
5.1%
Weak — 5.1% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-1.3%
Shrinking sales (-1.3% YoY)
EPS YoY
+130.8%
Earnings growing fast (130.8% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
61%
Modest — 61% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
0.1%
Thin free cash flow (0.1%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.95
Moderate — manageable debt (0.95)
Interest Cover
5.74x
Adequate interest coverage (5.7x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
19.3x
no trend
Fair value — P/E 19.3

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+7.1
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (19.3 → 12.1)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
2.51%
no trend
Moderate income — 2.51% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+6.6%
no trend
Dividend growing modestly (6.6% YoY)

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