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Post Holdings

POST
41
Packaged Foods · Consumer Defensive
Winston Score
41
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Post Holdings makes packaged food products that people buy at grocery stores. Its best-known products are breakfast cereals like Honey Bunches of Oats, Grape-Nuts, and Malt-O-Meal. The company also sells eggs, potatoes, and protein-based foods to restaurants and foodservice customers, making it more than just a cereal brand.

Post earns money by selling its products to grocery retailers, warehouse clubs, and foodservice distributors. It operates mainly in the United States, with some international sales, and generates roughly $8 billion in annual revenue. The company has built a cost advantage in private-label and value cereals, which gives it some pricing flexibility in that segment. The main risk Post faces is that consumers are eating less traditional breakfast cereal over time, so the company has been using acquisitions to expand into faster-growing food categories like eggs and foodservice, which now make up a large share of its business.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+4.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+54.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

Insider Activity

21.9%ownership

Rising

Insiders increasing their stake — aligned with shareholders

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$269M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

→ Burn rate stable

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Post Holdings is growing revenue at 5% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
26.9%
Modest — 26.9% gross margin
Operating Margin
10.9%
Modest — 10.9% operating margin
ROCE
2.1%
Weak — 2.1% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+1.2%
Nearly flat sales (1.2% YoY)
EPS YoY
-11.8%
Earnings shrinking (-11.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
306%
Turns 306% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
5.4%
Thin free cash flow (5.4%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
2.39
Heavy debt load (2.39)
Interest Cover
2.25x
Tight — interest eats into profit (2.2x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
13.1x
no trend
Attractive valuation — P/E 13.1

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+1.7
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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