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PROG Holdings

PRG
47
Rental & Leasing Services · Industrials
Winston Score
47
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

PROG Holdings runs a lease-to-own business, mostly through its main brand Progressive Leasing. It lets shoppers buy furniture, electronics, appliances, and other household goods without needing a credit card or traditional loan. The company partners with thousands of retail stores — both in-store and online — so customers who can't qualify for regular financing can still take home products and pay over time.

PROG makes money by purchasing the item from the retailer and then leasing it to the customer, collecting weekly or monthly payments that add up to more than the original cost. It operates almost entirely in the United States and serves millions of consumers who are considered "credit-challenged" — people with thin or poor credit histories. This underserved customer base is the core of its competitive position, but it also creates real risk: when the economy weakens and consumers fall behind on payments, default rates rise and profits can shrink quickly.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
-58.6%
Thin — -58.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
165.7%
Excellent — 165.7% operating margin
ROCE
8.4%
Below par — 8.4% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-27.6%
Shrinking sales (-27.6% YoY)
EPS YoY
-26.3%
Earnings shrinking (-26.3% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
200%
Turns 200% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
15.7%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (15.7%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
N/A
Data not available
Interest Cover
24.43x
Comfortably covers interest (24.4x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
12.5x
no trend
Attractive valuation — P/E 12.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+4.7
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (12.5 → 7.9)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.16%
no trend
Small dividend — 1.16% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+8.0%
no trend
Dividend growing modestly (8.0% YoY)

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