Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as the holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. that provides community banking services to consumers and small to mid-sized businesses in the Inland Empire region of Southern California. Its deposit products include checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as time deposits; and loan portfolio consists of single-family, multi-family, commercial real estate, construction, mortgage, commercial business, and consumer loans. The comp

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin

65.5%

Premium pricing power — 65.5% gross margin

Operating Margin

13.1%

Healthy — 13.1% operating margin

ROCE

0.6%

Weak — 0.6% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-0.2%

Shrinking sales (-0.2% YoY)

EPS YoY

+7.9%

Modest earnings growth (7.9% YoY)

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

142%

Turns 142% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

14.0%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (14.0%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

1.46

Elevated debt (1.46)

Interest Cover

0.44x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.4x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

18.3x

no trend

Fair value — P/E 18.3

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

+3.6

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (18.3 → 14.6)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

3.25%

no trend

Moderate income — 3.25% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

+0.0%

no trend

Dividend flat

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