PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

PulteGroup builds and sells new homes across the United States. It operates under several brand names — Pulte Homes, Centex, and Del Webb — targeting different types of buyers, from first-time homeowners to retirees looking for active-adult communities. It is one of the three largest homebuilders in the country by homes delivered each year.

The company makes money by constructing and selling single-family homes, townhomes, and condos, typically earning revenue when a home closes. It also offers mortgage and title services through its financial services segment, which adds a small but steady income stream. PulteGroup operates in over 40 major markets across more than 20 states, and its scale gives it negotiating power with suppliers and land sellers. The biggest risk the business faces is rising mortgage interest rates, which make monthly payments less affordable and can quickly slow buyer demand.

Winston Score History

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2 trades / 12mo

0 Congressional buys and 2 sells on PHM in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-12.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-30.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

0.8%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$1.8B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

PulteGroup's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

24.1%

Thin — 24.1% gross margin

Operating Margin

12.9%

Healthy — 12.9% operating margin

ROCE

2.9%

Weak — 2.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-5.9%

Shrinking sales (-5.9% YoY)

EPS YoY

-27.1%

Earnings shrinking (-27.1% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

0/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

85%

Modest — 85% of profit becomes cash

FCF Margin

9.8%

Modest free cash flow (9.8%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.18

Conservative — low debt load (0.18)

Interest Cover

4299.32x

Comfortably covers interest (4299.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

11.9x

no trend

Attractive valuation — P/E 11.9

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

-1.5

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

0.75%

no trend

Small dividend — 0.75% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth

+16.3%

no trend

Dividend growing fast (16.3% YoY)

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