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Santos

STOSF
43
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy
Price
$5.29
+0.06 (+1.05%)
Market Cap
$17.16B
Exchange
Other OTC
Winston Score
43
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+51.3% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 2.15B (2021) → 3.25B (2025)

Santos Ltd is an Australian oil and gas company that finds, produces, and sells natural gas and crude oil. Its main products are liquefied natural gas (LNG), pipeline gas, and oil. Customers include industrial buyers, utilities, and energy companies across Asia and Australia. Santos is one of the largest independent oil and gas producers in the Asia-Pacific region.

The company earns money by selling LNG and gas under long-term contracts, as well as selling oil at market prices. Santos operates across Australia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, and Alaska, with major projects including the Darwin LNG and PNG LNG facilities. Its competitive position comes from long-term supply contracts and large, established production assets. The main risks are falling global energy prices, high capital costs to maintain aging fields, and growing pressure to reduce carbon emissions as governments push toward cleaner energy sources.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
29.9%
Modest — 29.9% gross margin
Operating Margin
26.2%
Excellent — 26.2% operating margin
ROCE
2.9%
Weak — 2.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-33.0%
Shrinking sales (-33.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
-37.6%
Earnings shrinking (-37.6% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
220%
Turns 220% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
1.9%
Thin free cash flow (1.9%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.40
Conservative — low debt load (0.40)
Interest Cover
9.55x
Comfortably covers interest (9.5x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
9.3x
Attractive valuation — P/E 9.3

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-0.9
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
4.58%
Healthy income — 4.58% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth
-3.9%
Dividend cut (-3.9% YoY) — warning sign

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