Shift4 Payments

FOUR

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

Price

$50.33

-1.32 (-2.56%)

Market Cap

$4.58B

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+62.0% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 54.9M (2021) → 89.0M (2025)

Shift4 Payments helps businesses accept credit and debit card payments. It focuses on industries like restaurants, hotels, stadiums, and casinos — places that handle a lot of transactions quickly. The company provides the software, hardware terminals, and payment processing technology that businesses use to collect money from customers.

Shift4 makes money by taking a small fee on every dollar processed through its system, which means revenue grows as its customers do more business. It operates mainly in the United States but has been expanding into Europe and other international markets. The company has built sticky relationships by bundling payment processing with industry-specific software, making it harder for customers to switch. Its main growth driver is increasing the total volume of payments it processes, both by adding new customers and by expanding internationally — but it faces stiff competition from larger rivals like Fiserv, Global Payments, and Stripe, which have more resources and broader reach.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+34.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

-77.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (15%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

37.4%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$964M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue accelerating

Shift4 Payments grew revenue 34% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

37.8%

Modest — 37.8% gross margin

Operating Margin

10.8%

Modest — 10.8% operating margin

ROCE

2.1%

Weak — 2.1% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+25.5%

Fast-growing sales (25.5% YoY)

EPS YoY

-65.3%

Earnings shrinking (-65.3% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

0/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

611%

Turns 611% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

9.5%

Modest free cash flow (9.5%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

3.15

Heavy debt load (3.15)

Interest Cover

1.85x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.9x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

43.7x

Pricey — P/E 43.7

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward

+36.2

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (43.7 → 7.5)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.

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