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Smith Douglas Homes

SDHC
29
Real Estate - Development · Real Estate
Price
$15.44
-0.54 (-3.38%)
Market Cap
$128.9M
Winston Score
29
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

78.9% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 43.6M (2021) → 9.2M (2025)

Smith Douglas Homes is a homebuilder that designs and sells new single-family homes to everyday buyers, mostly first-time and entry-level homeowners. The company focuses on affordable, move-in-ready homes in fast-growing markets across the southeastern United States, including states like Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Alabama. It is a smaller regional builder competing in a space dominated by larger national companies like D.R. Horton and Lennar.

The company makes money by building and selling homes, earning revenue each time a completed house is sold to a buyer. With a market cap of roughly $100 million, Smith Douglas is a small player, but its focus on affordable entry-level homes gives it a targeted niche in high-demand Sun Belt markets. The main growth driver is continued population migration into the Southeast, while the biggest risk is rising mortgage interest rates, which make homes less affordable and can quickly slow buyer demand.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
19.6%
Thin — 19.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
2.2%
Thin — 2.2% operating margin
ROCE
3.0%
Weak — 3.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-5.8%
Shrinking sales (-5.8% YoY)
EPS YoY
-46.3%
Earnings shrinking (-46.3% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
46%
Weak — only 46% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
-0.1%
Burning cash (-0.1%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.83
Moderate — manageable debt (0.83)
Interest Cover
16.71x
Comfortably covers interest (16.7x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
16.3x
Fair value — P/E 16.3

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
-14.4
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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