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South Bow Corporation

SOBO
45
Oil & Gas Midstream · Energy
Price
$37.83
+0.23 (+0.61%)
Market Cap
$7.89B
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
45
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

South Bow Corporation is a Canadian pipeline company that moves crude oil from producers in Alberta and the U.S. Midwest to refineries and export terminals across North America. It operates the Keystone Pipeline System, one of the largest crude oil pipeline networks on the continent, connecting oil sands production in Canada to markets as far south as the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company was spun off from TC Energy in 2024 as a standalone midstream business focused purely on liquids pipelines.

South Bow earns money mainly through long-term contracts with oil producers and shippers who pay fees to move crude through its pipelines, regardless of oil prices. It operates primarily in Canada and the United States, with a market cap of around $7.6 billion. Its contracted revenue model provides relatively stable cash flows, but the business faces long-term risk from any decline in Canadian oil sands production or regulatory pressure on pipeline infrastructure expansion.

Winston Score History

Share count broadly stable

+0.6% over 2y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 207.6M (2023) → 208.8M (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
22.0%
Thin — 22.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
22.0%
Excellent — 22.0% operating margin
ROCE
1.1%
Weak — 1.1% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-25.1%
Shrinking sales (-25.1% YoY)
EPS YoY
+29.3%
Earnings growing fast (29.3% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
197%
Turns 197% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
37.5%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (37.5%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
2.16
Heavy debt load (2.16)
Interest Cover
1.40x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.4x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
19.9x
Fair value — P/E 19.9

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+2.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
5.38%
Healthy income — 5.38% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth
N/A
no trend
Data not available

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