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Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

TMHC
34
Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$72.13
-0.05 (-0.07%)
Market Cap
$6.64B
Winston Score
34
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

21.3% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 128.0M (2021) → 100.7M (2025)

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation builds and sells new homes across the United States. The company targets a range of buyers, from first-time homeowners to move-up buyers and active adults looking to downsize, selling homes under the Taylor Morrison and Esplanade brand names. It operates primarily in fast-growing Sun Belt markets like Texas, Florida, Arizona, and the Carolinas.

The company makes money by building homes on land it owns or controls, then selling those homes directly to buyers — a straightforward build-and-sell model with no recurring subscription revenue. With a market cap around $6.7 billion, Taylor Morrison is a mid-sized homebuilder competing against larger rivals like D.R. Horton and Lennar, relying on its land positioning in high-demand metros as a key competitive advantage. The main risk the business faces is interest rate sensitivity — when mortgage rates rise, fewer buyers can afford new homes, which directly pressures sales volume and pricing power.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

3 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 2 sells on TMHC in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
21.0%
Thin — 21.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
10.2%
Modest — 10.2% operating margin
ROCE
1.7%
Weak — 1.7% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-9.0%
Shrinking sales (-9.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
-22.3%
Earnings shrinking (-22.3% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
112%
Turns 112% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
9.3%
Modest free cash flow (9.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.37
Conservative — low debt load (0.37)
Interest Cover
20.16x
Comfortably covers interest (20.2x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
10.6x
Attractive valuation — P/E 10.6

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
-3.0
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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