The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, ear

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

2 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 1 sell on CG in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-76.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-202.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

27.3%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$2.8B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

The Carlyle Group's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

189.5%

Premium pricing power — 189.5% gross margin

Operating Margin

-74.1%

Losing money on operations — -74.1%

ROCE

-0.7%

Weak — -0.7% return on capital

Negative ROIC means the business is losing money on every dollar invested in it.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-3.7%

Shrinking sales (-3.7% YoY)

EPS YoY

-49.8%

Earnings shrinking (-49.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

-148%

Weak — only -148% of profit becomes cash

FCF Margin

-23.0%

Burning cash (-23.0%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

2.63

Heavy debt load (2.63)

Interest Cover

1.84x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.8x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

29.9x

no trend

Growth-priced — P/E 29.9

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward

+21.6

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (29.9 → 8.3)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

3.27%

no trend

Moderate income — 3.27% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

+0.0%

no trend

Dividend flat

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