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The Mosaic Company

MOS
44
Agricultural Inputs · Basic Materials
Price
$22.13
-0.40 (-1.78%)
Market Cap
$7.03B
Winston Score
44
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

16.4% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 381.6M (2021) → 318.9M (2025)

The Mosaic Company mines and sells two key nutrients that farmers use to grow crops: potash and phosphate. These minerals go into fertilizers that help plants grow faster and produce more food. Mosaic is one of the largest producers of both potash and phosphate in the world, selling mostly to farmers and agricultural distributors across North and South America.

Mosaic makes money by mining these minerals and selling them by the ton to fertilizer blenders, distributors, and large farming operations. The company operates mines and processing plants mainly in the United States, Canada, and Brazil, with Brazil being a growing part of its business. Its competitive edge comes from owning large, long-life mineral deposits that are expensive and difficult for competitors to replicate. The main risk the company faces is that fertilizer prices are highly volatile and tied to global supply, natural gas costs, and crop commodity prices — all factors largely outside Mosaic's control.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

9 trades / 12mo

3 Congressional buys and 6 sells on MOS in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-7.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

+3.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (3%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.6%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~2 months

$277M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Cash watch

The Mosaic Company has less than a year of cash at its current burn rate. Growth investors should watch for potential share dilution from future fundraising — that directly reduces your ownership.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
14.2%
Thin — 14.2% gross margin
Operating Margin
9.0%
Modest — 9.0% operating margin
ROCE
1.4%
Weak — 1.4% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+5.0%
Slow sales growth (5.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
+607.3%
Earnings growing fast (607.3% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
8/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
67%
Modest — 67% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
-4.6%
Burning cash (-4.6%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.41
Conservative — low debt load (0.41)
Interest Cover
5.32x
Adequate interest coverage (5.3x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
5.7x
Attractive valuation — P/E 5.7

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-4.8
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
4.16%
Healthy income — 4.16% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth
+2.3%
Dividend flat

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