Toll Brothers

TOL

Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical

Price

$150.76

-5.05 (-3.24%)

Market Cap

$14.09B

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

−20.7% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 125.8M (2021) → 99.8M (2025)

Toll Brothers builds and sells new homes in the United States. The company focuses mostly on luxury homes, targeting higher-income buyers who want larger, more customizable houses. It is one of the largest luxury homebuilders in the country, operating in over 60 markets across more than 24 states.

The company makes money by selling newly constructed homes, with prices typically ranging from the mid-$500,000s to well over $1 million. Toll Brothers also earns additional revenue through its own mortgage, title, and home design services, which help keep customers in its ecosystem. Its focus on the luxury segment gives it some insulation from entry-level housing competition, but rising mortgage interest rates remain a key risk, as higher borrowing costs can quickly reduce demand from even well-off buyers.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

1 trades / 12mo

0 Congressional buys and 1 sell on TOL in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+15.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

+25.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.8%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

5+ years

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

$1.2B cash & investments at current burn rate

Growth context

Toll Brothers is growing revenue at 15% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

22.8%

Thin — 22.8% gross margin

Operating Margin

10.2%

Modest — 10.2% operating margin

ROCE

1.9%

Weak — 1.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+4.6%

Slow sales growth (4.6% YoY)

EPS YoY

-3.8%

Earnings shrinking (-3.8% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

112%

Turns 112% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

12.9%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (12.9%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.34

Conservative — low debt load (0.34)

Interest Cover

100.00x

—

Comfortably covers interest (100.0x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

10.7x

Attractive valuation — P/E 10.7

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

-1.6

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

0.64%

Small dividend — 0.64% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth

+6.3%

Dividend growing modestly (6.3% YoY)

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