TransAlta logo

TransAlta

TA-PH.TO
24
Independent Power Producers · Utilities
Price
C$25.70
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Market Cap
C$5.17B
Exchange
Toronto Stock Exchange
Winston Score
24
Winston looking worried
Winston is worried
Weak fundamentals across most pillars.

Winston Score below 40. The stock fails on most of our quality checks.

TransAlta is a Canadian electricity company that generates power and sells it to utilities, businesses, and governments. It owns and operates power plants across Canada, the United States, and Australia, using a mix of energy sources including wind, solar, hydro, and natural gas. It is one of Canada's largest independent power producers.

TransAlta makes money by selling electricity under long-term contracts, called power purchase agreements, as well as through wholesale energy markets. Most of its revenue comes from Canada, with meaningful operations in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Western Australia. The company has been shifting away from coal toward cleaner energy sources, which reduces long-term regulatory risk but requires heavy capital spending. Its negative operating margin reflects the costs of that transition, and the pace of signing new long-term contracts for its renewable assets is the key factor that will shape its financial performance going forward.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-11.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-18.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

17.0%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$205M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Winston looking concerned
Revenue declining

TransAlta's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
50.3%
Healthy — 50.3% gross margin
Operating Margin
5.2%
Thin — 5.2% operating margin
ROCE
0.6%
Weak — 0.6% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-15.5%
Shrinking sales (-15.5% YoY)
EPS YoY
-223.2%
Earnings shrinking (-223.2% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
N/A
Data not available
FCF Margin
16.1%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (16.1%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
3.00
Heavy debt load (3.00)
Interest Cover
0.52x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.5x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio
N/M
Negative earnings — P/E not meaningful
P/E vs Forward
N/A
not available
Data not available

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.50%
Small dividend — 1.50% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+0.0%
Dividend flat

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