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Trex Company

TREX
43
Construction · Industrials
Price
$45.13
-0.68 (-1.48%)
Market Cap
$4.69B
Winston Score
43
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

7.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 115.8M (2021) → 107.1M (2025)

Trex Company makes outdoor decking, railing, and related products for homes. Instead of using wood, Trex builds its products from a mix of recycled plastic and wood scraps — materials that would otherwise end up in landfills. The company sells primarily to homeowners through home improvement retailers like Home Depot and Lowe's, as well as through independent dealers and contractors across the United States.

Trex makes money by selling its composite decking and railing products directly to distributors and retailers, who then sell to end customers. The company operates almost entirely in the U.S., though it has a small international presence. Its main competitive advantage is brand recognition in the composite decking category and a large-scale manufacturing process that is difficult for smaller rivals to copy. The key risk is that demand for decking is tied closely to the housing market and home renovation spending, both of which slow down when interest rates are high or the economy weakens.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

1 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 0 sells on TREX in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+1.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+3.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.7%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~0 months

$4M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Cash watch

Trex Company has less than a year of cash at its current burn rate. Growth investors should watch for potential share dilution from future fundraising — that directly reduces your ownership.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
40.5%
Healthy — 40.5% gross margin
Operating Margin
24.3%
Excellent — 24.3% operating margin
ROCE
6.0%
Weak — 6.0% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+5.4%
Slow sales growth (5.4% YoY)
EPS YoY
-1.6%
Earnings shrinking (-1.6% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
206%
Turns 206% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
-1.9%
Burning cash (-1.9%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.40
Conservative — low debt load (0.40)
Interest Cover
100.00x
Comfortably covers interest (100.0x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
25.2x
Growth-priced — P/E 25.2

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
-1.0
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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