Trinity Industries

TRN

Railroads · Industrials

Price

$36.47

-0.66 (-1.78%)

Market Cap

$2.90B

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

−20.1% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 103.8M (2021) → 82.9M (2025)

Trinity Industries makes railcars and leases them to companies that ship goods across North America. Their main products include tank cars, hopper cars, and freight cars used to move things like chemicals, grain, and coal. They are one of the largest railcar manufacturers and lessors in the United States.

Trinity makes money in two main ways: selling new railcars to customers and leasing railcars through its large owned fleet, which provides steady rental income over time. The company operates almost entirely in North America and has a fleet of roughly 100,000 railcars, giving it scale that smaller competitors struggle to match. The leasing business provides more predictable revenue than manufacturing alone, but Trinity faces real risk from slowing freight demand — if industries like energy or agriculture pull back, orders for new railcars and lease renewals can drop quickly.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

2 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 1 sell on TRN in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-16.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

+11.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

1.5%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~13 months

$253M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Revenue declining

Trinity Industries's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

26.2%

Modest — 26.2% gross margin

Operating Margin

15.9%

Healthy — 15.9% operating margin

ROCE

1.2%

Weak — 1.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-27.7%

Shrinking sales (-27.7% YoY)

EPS YoY

+92.2%

Earnings growing fast (92.2% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

149%

Turns 149% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

-21.4%

Burning cash (-21.4%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

4.99

Heavy debt load (4.99)

Interest Cover

1.29x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.3x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

11.4x

Attractive valuation — P/E 11.4

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

-3.5

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

3.51%

Moderate income — 3.51% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

+4.2%

Dividend growing modestly (4.2% YoY)

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