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Turning Point Brands

TPB
48
Tobacco · Consumer Defensive
Price
$82.84
-0.56 (-0.67%)
Market Cap
$1.60B
Winston Score
48
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

16.3% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 22.4M (2021) → 18.7M (2025)

Turning Point Brands sells tobacco and nicotine products in the United States. Its main brands include Zig-Zag (rolling papers and cigars) and Stoker's (moist snuff and chewing tobacco). The company focuses on "alternative" tobacco products — things like loose-leaf tobacco and wraps — rather than traditional cigarettes, which are dominated by much larger players like Altria.

The company makes money by selling these products through convenience stores, tobacco shops, and online retailers across the U.S. With a gross margin near 57%, its branded products carry meaningful pricing power compared to generic competitors. Turning Point Brands is much smaller than industry giants, but its Zig-Zag brand holds strong recognition in the rolling-papers category, giving it a loyal customer base. The key growth opportunity is expanding into modern oral nicotine products like pouches, but the main risk is tightening federal regulation of tobacco and nicotine products, which could restrict what the company is allowed to sell or how it can market its brands.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+16.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-24.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

Declining (-100% vs prior year)

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (2%)

R&D spend declining — could signal cost-cutting or efficiency

Insider Activity

6.3%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~21 months

$192M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Growth context

Turning Point Brands is growing revenue at 17% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
55.0%
Healthy — 55.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
10.4%
Modest — 10.4% operating margin
ROCE
2.0%
Weak — 2.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+25.2%
Fast-growing sales (25.2% YoY)
EPS YoY
+25.9%
Earnings growing fast (25.9% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
37%
Weak — only 37% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
0.8%
Thin free cash flow (0.8%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.80
Moderate — manageable debt (0.80)
Interest Cover
3.35x
Tight — interest eats into profit (3.3x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
27.5x
Growth-priced — P/E 27.5

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
-34.4
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
0.35%
Small dividend — 0.35% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+6.9%
Dividend growing modestly (6.9% YoY)

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