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TXNM Energy

TXNM
46
Regulated Electric · Utilities
Price
$57.41
-0.16 (-0.28%)
Market Cap
$6.36B
Winston Score
46
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+8.2% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 86.1M (2021) → 93.2M (2025)

TXNM Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas utility that delivers power and gas to homes and businesses in New Mexico and Texas. Its main subsidiaries are Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power (TNMP), which together serve roughly 800,000 customers across the Southwest. The company operates the physical infrastructure — power lines, substations, and pipelines — that keeps the lights on for residential and commercial customers.

TXNM makes money by charging regulated rates approved by state utility commissions, meaning its revenue is relatively predictable but tightly controlled by regulators. It operates entirely in the U.S. Southwest, with a market cap around $6.6 billion, and its main competitive advantage is that it holds government-granted monopoly franchises in its service territories. The key growth driver is rising electricity demand in its fast-growing Texas and New Mexico markets, though the main risk is regulatory lag — when costs rise faster than regulators allow rates to increase, profit margins get squeezed.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+4.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-58.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

14.6%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~0 months

$6M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Cash watch

TXNM Energy has less than a year of cash at its current burn rate. Growth investors should watch for potential share dilution from future fundraising — that directly reduces your ownership.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
34.8%
Modest — 34.8% gross margin
Operating Margin
15.3%
Healthy — 15.3% operating margin
ROCE
1.9%
Weak — 1.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+8.5%
Steady sales growth (8.5% YoY)
EPS YoY
-38.5%
Earnings shrinking (-38.5% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
407%
Turns 407% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
-26.0%
Burning cash (-26.0%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.18
Conservative — low debt load (0.18)
Interest Cover
1.32x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.3x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
41.6x
Pricey — P/E 41.6

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+25.6
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (41.6 → 16.0)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
2.91%
Moderate income — 2.91% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+4.4%
Dividend growing modestly (4.4% YoY)

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