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United Parcel Service Inc. R logo

United Parcel Service Inc. R

UPAB.DE
42
Airlines, Airports & Air Services · Industrials
Exchange
Frankfurt Stock Exchange
Winston Score
42
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

UPS is one of the world's largest package delivery companies. It picks up boxes, envelopes, and freight from businesses and individuals and delivers them to homes and businesses across the globe. Its main customers are online retailers, healthcare companies, and small businesses that need reliable shipping.

UPS makes money by charging fees for each package it delivers, with prices based on size, weight, speed, and distance. It operates in over 220 countries and territories, with its largest business in the United States. Its competitive advantage comes from its massive network of planes, trucks, warehouses, and sorting facilities, which would cost billions of dollars and decades to replicate. The biggest risk UPS faces is slowing e-commerce growth combined with rising costs, since the company has been working to shrink its volume from its largest customer, Amazon, to focus on higher-margin deliveries — a strategy that reduces revenue in the short term but aims to improve profitability over time.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
16.1%
Thin — 16.1% gross margin
Operating Margin
6.3%
Modest — 6.3% operating margin
ROCE
3.3%
Weak — 3.3% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-2.9%
Shrinking sales (-2.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
-10.2%
Earnings shrinking (-10.2% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
159%
Turns 159% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
5.1%
Thin free cash flow (5.1%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.59
Elevated debt (1.59)
Interest Cover
7.44x
Adequate interest coverage (7.4x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
18.9x
no trend
Fair value — P/E 18.9

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+7.7
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (18.9 → 11.2)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
5.93%
no trend
Healthy income — 5.93% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth
-6.7%
no trend
Dividend cut (-6.7% YoY) — warning sign

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