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United Parcel Service logo

United Parcel Service

UPS
31
Integrated Freight & Logistics · Industrials
Price
$117.72
+0.54 (+0.46%)
Market Cap
$87.89B
Winston Score
31
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

3.2% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 878.0M (2021) → 850.0M (2025)

United Parcel Service, or UPS, picks up and delivers packages and freight for businesses and individuals around the world. Its core services include ground shipping, air delivery, and international freight, serving everyone from small online sellers to large retailers and hospitals. UPS is one of the two dominant parcel carriers in the United States, alongside FedEx, and operates one of the largest private airline fleets on the planet.

UPS earns money by charging fees for each shipment, with prices based on package size, weight, speed, and distance. It operates in over 220 countries and territories, generating roughly $90 billion in annual revenue, with the U.S. domestic segment making up the largest share. Its dense delivery network and long-term contracts with major shippers create a meaningful cost advantage that is hard for new competitors to replicate. The biggest risk the company faces is the ongoing pressure from large customers, particularly Amazon, reducing their reliance on UPS by building out their own delivery networks.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

29 trades / 12mo

17 Congressional buys and 12 sells on UPS in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
17.0%
Thin — 17.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
6.0%
Thin — 6.0% operating margin
ROCE
3.1%
Weak — 3.1% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-2.7%
Shrinking sales (-2.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
-9.9%
Earnings shrinking (-9.9% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
159%
Turns 159% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
5.1%
Thin free cash flow (5.1%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.59
Elevated debt (1.59)
Interest Cover
7.21x
Adequate interest coverage (7.2x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
19.0x
Fair value — P/E 19.0

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+6.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (19.0 → 12.7)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
6.01%
Healthy income — 6.01% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth
+0.3%
Dividend flat

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