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Valero Energy Corporation

VLO
42
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Energy
Price
$309.65
+9.39 (+3.13%)
Market Cap
$91.95B
Winston Score
42
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

24.1% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 407.0M (2021) → 309.0M (2025)

Valero Energy is one of the largest oil refiners in the world. It takes crude oil and turns it into everyday products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. These products are sold to gas stations, trucking companies, airlines, and other businesses that need fuel to operate.

Valero makes money by buying crude oil, refining it, and selling the finished products at a higher price. The difference between those two prices is called the "crack spread," and it is the main driver of Valero's profits. The company operates around 15 refineries across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, giving it a large and geographically spread-out production base. Its sheer size and refining capacity make it hard for smaller competitors to match its efficiency. The biggest risk Valero faces is that refining margins can shrink quickly when crude oil prices rise or fuel demand falls, making profits unpredictable from year to year.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

4 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 3 sells on VLO in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
8.9%
Thin — 8.9% gross margin
Operating Margin
5.3%
Thin — 5.3% operating margin
ROCE
4.9%
Weak — 4.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-1.7%
Shrinking sales (-1.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
+385.2%
Earnings growing fast (385.2% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
149%
Turns 149% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
4.3%
Thin free cash flow (4.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.48
Conservative — low debt load (0.48)
Interest Cover
10.40x
Comfortably covers interest (10.4x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
22.5x
Growth-priced — P/E 22.5

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+6.7
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (22.5 → 15.8)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.66%
Small dividend — 1.66% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+5.9%
Dividend growing modestly (5.9% YoY)

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