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Velocity Financial

VEL
62
Financial - Mortgages · Financial Services
Winston Score
62
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Velocity Financial is a real estate lender that makes loans to small-scale property investors — people who buy houses, apartment buildings, or commercial properties to rent out for income. Instead of lending to regular homebuyers, Velocity focuses on landlords and real estate entrepreneurs who need financing for investment properties. The company operates in the United States and is a specialty lender in the investor real estate loan market.

Velocity makes money by charging interest on the loans it issues, earning the difference between its borrowing costs and the rates it charges customers. The company funds its loans by borrowing money in the capital markets and then lending it out at higher rates, which is why its reported return on invested capital looks unusual — it is a heavily leveraged business by design. Its main competitive edge is its focus on a narrow, underserved niche that big banks largely avoid, but rising interest rates are a key risk because they compress the spread between what Velocity earns and what it pays to borrow.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+40.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

+3.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

Insider Activity

37.3%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$112M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue accelerating

Velocity Financial grew revenue 41% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
91.6%
Premium pricing power — 91.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
87.5%
Excellent — 87.5% operating margin
ROCE
1.9%
Weak — 1.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+44.1%
Fast-growing sales (44.1% YoY)
EPS YoY
+34.8%
Earnings growing fast (34.8% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
8/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
25%
Weak — only 25% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
3.8%
Thin free cash flow (3.8%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
10.21
Heavy debt load (10.21)
Interest Cover
0.96x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.0x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
6.1x
no trend
Attractive valuation — P/E 6.1

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-0.4
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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