WinstonWınston
Vistra logo

Vistra

VST
23
Independent Power Producers · Utilities
Price
$155.44
+2.88 (+1.89%)
Market Cap
$52.41B
Winston Score
23
Winston is worried
Weak fundamentals across most pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

29.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 482.2M (2021) → 339.8M (2025)

Vistra Corp. is one of the largest electricity generators in the United States. It produces power using natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy sources like solar and wind. The company sells that electricity to homes, businesses, and wholesale energy markets, mainly across Texas, where it operates under the TXU Energy brand.

Vistra makes money by generating electricity and selling it at market prices, as well as through retail electricity plans sold directly to consumers. It operates in several U.S. states but has its heaviest presence in Texas, where the deregulated ERCOT power market allows it to compete for customers. The company's large nuclear fleet gives it a source of low-carbon, around-the-clock power that is hard to replicate quickly, which is a meaningful competitive advantage. The biggest risk Vistra faces is that its profits depend heavily on volatile wholesale electricity prices, which can swing sharply based on weather, fuel costs, and supply conditions.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

12 trades / 12mo

7 Congressional buys and 5 sells on VST in the last 12 months.

Unlock the full Smart Money Map — every trade plotted on the price chart with politicians, amounts and returns since each trade. Founder's Deal is $57/mo locked for life.

Unlock politician trades
Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

Each metric is explained in plain language so you know exactly what you're looking at. Start your free trial now.

Quality

Gross Margin
-55.6%
Thin — -55.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
-74.8%
Losing money on operations — -74.8%
ROCE
-6.9%
Weak — -6.9% return on capital

Negative ROIC means the business is losing money on every dollar invested in it.

Full breakdown available with your free trial

See every metric, trend, and what it means for this stock.

Try free

Growth

Sales YoY
-13.7%
Shrinking sales (-13.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
-69.0%
Earnings shrinking (-69.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

Full breakdown available with your free trial

See every metric, trend, and what it means for this stock.

Try free

Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
431%
Turns 431% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
3.8%
Thin free cash flow (3.8%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

Full breakdown available with your free trial

See every metric, trend, and what it means for this stock.

Try free

Stability

Debt / Equity
3.93
Heavy debt load (3.93)
Interest Cover
0.86x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.9x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

Full breakdown available with your free trial

See every metric, trend, and what it means for this stock.

Try free

Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
69.7x
Expensive — P/E 69.7

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+58.1
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (69.7 → 11.6)

Full breakdown available with your free trial

See every metric, trend, and what it means for this stock.

Try free

Dividends

Dividend Yield
0.60%
Small dividend — 0.60% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+2.3%
Dividend flat

Full breakdown available with your free trial

See every metric, trend, and what it means for this stock.

Try free
🔒 See full fundamentals and if they are improving or declining — click here for your free trial now.
Start free trial