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Warrior Met Coal

HCC
56
Coal · Energy
Price
$78.91
-1.53 (-1.90%)
Market Cap
$4.17B
Winston Score
56
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Share count rising — dilution

+2.3% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 51.4M (2021) → 52.6M (2025)

Warrior Met Coal is a U.S. company that mines and sells metallurgical coal, which is a special type of coal used to make steel. Unlike regular coal burned for electricity, met coal is a key ingredient in steel production, and Warrior sells almost entirely to steel mills around the world. The company operates underground mines in Alabama and is one of the larger pure-play metallurgical coal producers in the United States.

Warrior makes money by selling met coal by the ton, so its revenue rises and falls with global met coal prices. Most of its customers are steel producers in Europe, South America, and Asia, making the business heavily tied to international steel demand. The main risk is that met coal prices are volatile and outside the company's control, and long-term demand faces uncertainty as steelmakers experiment with lower-carbon production methods that require less traditional met coal.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+53.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

+956.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

2.1%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~7 months

$203M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Revenue accelerating

Warrior Met Coal grew revenue 54% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
98.2%
Premium pricing power — 98.2% gross margin
Operating Margin
17.3%
Healthy — 17.3% operating margin
ROCE
3.4%
Weak — 3.4% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+11.3%
Steady sales growth (11.3% YoY)
EPS YoY
+30.2%
Earnings growing fast (30.2% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
150%
Turns 150% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
-9.2%
Burning cash (-9.2%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.07
Conservative — low debt load (0.07)
Interest Cover
13.25x
Comfortably covers interest (13.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
30.1x
Pricey — P/E 30.1

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+16.7
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (30.1 → 13.4)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
0.40%
Small dividend — 0.40% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+0.0%
Dividend flat

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