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Waste Connections

WCN
47
Waste Management · Industrials
Price
$171.91
-2.42 (-1.39%)
Market Cap
$43.68B
Winston Score
47
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

2.0% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 261.7M (2021) → 256.5M (2025)

Waste Connections picks up trash, recycling, and hazardous waste for homes, businesses, and cities across North America. The company owns and operates garbage trucks, transfer stations, and landfills, serving millions of residential and commercial customers. It is one of the three largest solid waste companies in the United States and also has a significant presence in Canada.

The company makes money by charging customers regular fees to collect and dispose of their waste, similar to a subscription. Waste Connections focuses on smaller, less competitive markets — often rural and suburban areas — where it faces fewer rivals and can maintain stable pricing. This geographic strategy gives it a durable competitive position, since landfills and collection routes are expensive to replicate. The main growth driver is acquiring smaller, regional waste haulers, but rising costs for fuel, labor, and environmental compliance remain ongoing risks to profitability.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+6.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-7.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.3%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$112M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Waste Connections is growing revenue at 6% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
42.6%
Healthy — 42.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
15.4%
Healthy — 15.4% operating margin
ROCE
2.1%
Weak — 2.1% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+6.3%
Slow sales growth (6.3% YoY)
EPS YoY
+69.5%
Earnings growing fast (69.5% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
228%
Turns 228% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
11.8%
Modest free cash flow (11.8%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.17
Elevated debt (1.17)
Interest Cover
4.96x
Adequate interest coverage (5.0x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
41.7x
Pricey — P/E 41.7

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+16.4
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (41.7 → 25.3)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
0.81%
Small dividend — 0.81% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+11.0%
Dividend growing fast (11.0% YoY)

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