Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

Exxon Mobil is one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world. It finds oil and natural gas underground, pulls it out of the earth, and then refines it into products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and chemicals. Its customers include drivers, airlines, manufacturers, and industrial companies across the globe.

Exxon makes money by selling those fuels and chemical products, with prices tied closely to global oil and gas markets. It operates in dozens of countries, with major production in the United States, Guyana, and the Middle East, and it generates over $400 billion in annual revenue. The company's size gives it an advantage — it can spread costs across massive projects that smaller rivals cannot afford. The biggest risk Exxon faces is that oil prices are outside its control, and a sharp drop in crude prices can quickly shrink profits, as seen during past downturns.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

22 trades / 12mo

12 Congressional buys and 10 sells on XOM in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-1.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-12.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$1.2B/ year

↑ Rising (+22% vs prior year)

0.4% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

R&D investment increasing — building for the future

Insider Activity

0.2%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$10.7B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Exxon Mobil Corporation's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

+0.7% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 4.28B (2021) → 4.30B (2025)

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

18.9%

Thin — 18.9% gross margin

Operating Margin

7.5%

Modest — 7.5% operating margin

ROCE

1.8%

Weak — 1.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-4.5%

Shrinking sales (-4.5% YoY)

EPS YoY

-15.2%

Earnings shrinking (-15.2% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

0/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

180%

Turns 180% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

7.3%

Modest free cash flow (7.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.27

Conservative — low debt load (0.27)

Interest Cover

56.28x

Comfortably covers interest (56.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

20.6x

Growth-priced — P/E 20.6

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward

+7.2

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (20.6 → 13.3)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

2.81%

Moderate income — 2.81% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

+4.1%

Dividend growing modestly (4.1% YoY)

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